Day 1 | 2014 | 2018 | Incr% |
DEM | 2476 | 4442 | 79% |
REP | 2076 | 2868 | 38% |
UNA | 535 | 991 | 85% |
Day 2 | 2014 | 2018 | Incr% |
DEM | 2439 | 4413 | 81% |
REP | 2155 | 2973 | 38% |
UNA | 575 | 1191 | 107% |
Day 3 | 2014 | 2018 | Incr% |
DEM | 1254 | 3451 | 175% |
REP | 1051 | 2207 | 110% |
UNA | 323 | 1057 | 227% |
Day 4 | 2014 | 2018 | Incr% |
DEM | 1110 | 3599 | 224% |
REP | 915 | 2053 | 124% |
UNA | 312 | 1008 | 223% |
Day 5 | 2014 | 2018 | |
DEM | 2318 | 4712 | 103% |
REP | 2104 | 3166 | 50% |
UNA | 635 | 1270 | 100% |
Day 6 | 2014 | 2018 | |
DEM | 2341 | 4820 | 106% |
REP | 2094 | 3159 | 51% |
UNA | 585 | 1475 | 152% |
Day 7 | 2014 | 2018 | |
DEM | 2567 | 4500 | 75% |
REP | 2329 | 2957 | 27% |
UNA | 832 | 1404 | 69% |
Day 8 | 2014 | 2018 | |
DEM | 3385 | 5693 | 68% |
REP | 2978 | 3466 | 16% |
UNA | 1109 | 1847 | 67% |
Anne Arundel is one of those counties where the charts speak a thousand words. If you look only at the dark blue (2014) bars, turnout between Democrats and Republicans was roughly the same each day. Democrats had slight advantages of about 400 voters on Day 1 in 2014, and then about 200 on each successive day. The 2018 numbers are starkly different, with Democrats holding giant turnout advantages over Republicans of over 1,500 voters on Day 1, and no less than 1,200 on any other day.
Long considered a conservative county, Anne Arundel has been trending slowly but steadily in the Democrats’ direction in recent years. John McCain won the county by 1.8 percentage points in 2008, 50.0-48.2%. Four years later, Mitt Romney only won by 0.1 point. In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to win the county since 1964, opening up a 2.3 percentage point lead over Donald Trump. Larry Hogan took 66.1% of the vote in the Republican wave of 2014, but it is also his home county. If the Democrats’ lead in turnout continues through election day, that number for Hogan will be much smaller.
Another interesting point is the percentage of increase over 2014 (Incr%), another number that has heavily favored Democrats over the first four days. While turnout is up across the board compared to 2014, the increase among Democrats is much higher than the increase among Republicans. On Day 4 (Sunday), Democrats recorded a 224% increase in voter turnout, an absolutely staggering increase.
These trends did not change after the weekend. While the rate of growth slowed somewhat, Democrats continued to significantly outpace Republicans, both by raw number of voters and percentage of increase.