Breaking Down Biden’s Win in AACo

Anne Arundel County has a well-earned reputation of being a Republican stronghold. Between 1944 and 2012, the Republican presidential candidate has carried the county 17 times, and the Democratic candidate won the county only once (Lyndon Johnson in his 1964 landslide over Barry Goldwater). But in recent years, Democrats have been winning an increasing percentage of the vote until 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the county with a narrow plurality.

Many Republicans were surprised when Joe Biden won the county with a 14-point landslide margin in 2020, and there are some who say that the only reason the county voted blue in 2016 and 2020 were because Donald Trump was on the ballot. But this ignores the fact that the raw number of Republican votes decreased every year since 2004, while the number of Democratic votes have only increased. The exception was a gain of 5,418 Republican votes from 2016 to 2020, a year that saw a much larger increase of 44,404 Democratic votes.

Here’s what that trend from 2016 to 2020 looks like on a map.

You can find all the precinct data for the county for yourself here.

There are a few interesting points in this data:

1. Biden won every precinct in west county. Western Anne Arundel County has become a Democratic stronghold in recent years, as it has become an attractive home for federal workers (like Montgomery and Howard counties have also become) who tend to vote blue. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win every precinct in the Piney Orchard community in Odenton, which had supported Republicans since it was built in the 1990’s. She lost two precincts in west county: one in Jessup and one in Odenton. Biden carried these two precincts in 2020 along with the rest of west county.
2. Biden won every precinct on the Annapolis peninsula. The city of Annapolis has voted reliably blue for over a decade now, but many of the wealthy suburban precincts surrounding the city had continued to support Republican candidates, albeit in dwindling numbers. In 2020, Biden won every single precinct on the peninsula.
3. Biden won every precinct on the Broadneck peninsula. The Broadneck peninsula, with its upper-middle class suburban communities and luxury waterfront estates, has been one of the most reliably Republican parts of the county throughout its history. However, Biden made large gains in suburban areas across America, and ended up not just winning Broadneck, but carrying every precinct on the peninsula. This should make the Republicans downballot who represent this area in the state house and county government very nervous.
4. Biden performed better than Hillary Clinton in every precinct in the county except two. This is a particularly impressive feat. Biden increased the Democratic vote share in nearly every precinct in every corner of the county: from Linthicum to Deale and from Annapolis to Pasadena. There were only two precincts where Biden performed worse than Clinton, both of which were precincts in Brooklyn Park that Clinton had won four years prior. One of those precincts flipped to supporting Trump with a margin of 28 votes, and the other precinct was still won by Biden but with a reduced margin.
5. Biden won 6 of the 7 county council districts. This is a very interesting point. This doesn’t mean that Democrats can just go out and win six county council seats. But it does mean that Democrats have the potential to be competitive in at least the six districts that Biden won. It provides a potential ceiling for Democrats who run strong, well-funded campaigns in these districts. Here are the numbers:

For most of its history, the county consisted of suburban communities to the south of Baltimore and the city of Annapolis. The rest of the county was primarily rural in nature. This has completely changed. While there are some pockets of rural character around Gambrills and to the southwest of Edgewater, Anne Arundel County has become a primarily suburban county following a development boom that started in the 1960’s and has never really stopped since then.

The western part of the county in particular has transformed from a scattering of suburban communities separated by large swaths of trees into a booming, densely populated continuous suburb that has taken on a lot of characteristics of many other Washington-area communities. With this change came a slow voting trend toward Democrats, and now west county is a Democratic stronghold. In fact, when the Biden-Trump results are broken down by community, five out of the best six communities for Biden are in west county.

West county’s blue trend is obvious and long-running, but it’s too early to tell which direction Broadneck and north county are trending. While President Biden won about 55% in both areas, their conservative reputations makes us wonder whether that result was a fluke. Broadneck has long boasted the county’s best public schools, and parents who value this aspect of the area (and can afford the high housing prices) continue to move to this area. Some are certainly bringing their liberal views to the peninsula and it shows in the election results. Still, it’s unusual to see areas like Severna Park and Arnold support a Democratic presidential candidate by 12 and 14 point margins, respectively. Even Millersville, the northernmost and most conservative community on the peninsula, gave nearly half their votes to Biden. Was this just a reaction against an unpopular Republican president, or are the affluent Broadneck suburbs going the same way as the affluent suburbs on Annapolis Neck?

North county has taken a different path to its surprising blue hue this year. Glen Burnie and Brooklyn Park have blue-collar histories, and at one point voted consistently for Democrats. Since the Clinton era, they began to support Republicans up and down the ballot – especially east of Ritchie Highway – as factories closed and area jobs dwindled. However, one of the long-term effects of this has been that north county is one of the most affordable places to purchase a home in Anne Arundel, and this in turn has attracted people who have higher-paying jobs but are priced out of other areas.

Some pockets of north county still remain strongly conservative. Point Pleasant is relatively isolated from the rest of Glen Burnie and is one of the most consistent areas that Republicans win. Linthicum has felt some of the growth experienced by west county but is still disconnected from that area by the airport. Ferndale is… Ferndale. In November, majorities in Brooklyn Park and Glen Burnie voted for Biden while majorities in Linthicum and Ferndale voted for Trump. Like Broadneck, we are still left to wonder whether this is a fluke or a trend. Overall, Glen Burnie is less affluent and less educated than, say, Severna Park. But Glen Burnie is the single most populous community in the county, and accounted for 14.7% of the county’s overall vote in 2020. By comparison, the second-most populous community (Odenton) accounted for just 8.2%.

Anne Arundel County, long thought to be a Republican stronghold in a blue state, voted for Democrat Joe Biden by more than a 14-point margin. Is the county turning blue or was this just a reaction against Donald Trump? What does this mean for Democratic County Executive Steuart Pittman as he faces a tough re-election bid in 2022? Will Democrats lose their majority on the county council or expand it? Unfortunately, it’s simply too early to say for sure. But based on the election numbers and the longer-running trend towards Democrats, most signs point to the probability that Republicans are going to need to find a new stronghold.