It’s primary election day, also known as First Christmas for a political nerd like me (Second Christmas, of course, is in November). I will, of course, be watching the Anne Arundel area Democratic primaries with great interest. Here’s a quick rundown of each of those races and my predictions for who will win each. I do want to note that the person I’m predicting to win isn’t necessarily the person I want to win. I try to keep my personal opinions out of these predictions and stick to four major factors: 1) Ground campaign, 2) Strength of candidate, 3) Fundraising, and 4) Political climate. At the end of the day, I could very well be wrong about all of them, but here are the predictions.

 

Governor

There are nine Democratic candidates running for Governor (Larry Hogan is unopposed on the Republican side), but realistically it’s down to two: Rushern Baker and Ben Jealous. While Baker should have run away with this given his record of economic growth in PG County, his fights with the schools, lackluster fundraising, and lack of significant grassroots support have held him back this year. Jealous, meanwhile, is running as a progressive political outsider and has picked up the endorsement of the teacher’s union, among others. I think this will be close, with Baker winning Charles, Montgomery, and Prince George’s counties by small margins, but Jealous winning the rest of the state, including Anne Arundel and Baltimore City, by large margins. I predict Jealous will come in first, followed by Baker, and Madaleno in a distant third.

State Senate

District 30 (Annapolis, South County)

This is the only contested Democratic primary for the State Senate in Anne Arundel County. John Astle is retiring, and two Democratic women are facing off tomorrow: Sarah Elfreth and Chrissy Holt. Elfreth seems to have the backing of many of the party officeholders; no surprise, since she’s been working with them for years as an advocate and local party leader. Holt is running an unabashedly progressive campaign, putting Medicare for All at the forefront of her platform. It was tough coming up with this one, but my prediction is:

• Sarah Elfreth. She’s already well-known in many circles in Annapolis as a party and community leader, and has been raising a lot more money than her opponent. Either of these candidates would make excellent senators, but Elfreth will win this one by 10%.

House of Delegates

District 21 (College Park, Laurel, Odenton)

Longtime delegate Barbara Frush’s retirement sets off a rush of candidates reminiscent of 2006, when Pauline Menes retired. In that year, two of the challengers had so much support they unseated another of the incumbents, Craig Moe, in the fray. The two challengers that year were Ben Barnes and Joseline Peña-Melnyk, who are now the two remaining incumbents. There are four other candidates vying for one of the three seats, and the top two are PG County councilwoman Mary Lehman and community activist Matt Dernoga. Lehman starts out with a ton of name recognition from representing most of the PG County section of this district in the county council. Well aware of this, Dernoga has mounted a ferocious grassroots campaign. I don’t think Dernoga’s name will make much of a difference – his father Tom was Lehman’s predecessor on the county council – but his fundraising is strong, and campaign-wise he’s doing everything right to win. Therefore, my predictions are:

1. Joseline Peña-Melnyk. Her 2016 congressional campaign won her a lot of valuable contacts, and I see her as winning the most votes in this election.
2. Ben Barnes. There will be no 2006-style upsets this year. Barnes has been an effective voice for the district in Annapolis and, while he lacks the individual flair of Peña-Melnyk, should win a solid second place.
3. Mary Lehman. She’s a known factor in most of the district, and that may be just enough to put her ahead of Dernoga for third place. It will be very close though – perhaps within 3%. Dernoga’s campaign is seriously good.

District 30A (Annapolis)

This two-member district has a split delegation: one delegate is Democratic Speaker Mike Busch, and the other delegate is Republican Herb McMillan. McMillan was being targeted by Democrats anyway, but when he decided to retire, the floodgates opened and Democrats started filing left and right….sort of. In the end, there were only four candidates for this two-member district: Busch, Aron Axe, Alice Cain, and Mary Reese. My predictions:

1. Mike Busch. His signs say it all: “Maryland’s speaker, our delegate.” Annapolis voters have an incredibly powerful advocate owing to Busch’s leadership position. Voters are definitely looking for change this year, but getting rid of Busch is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Busch will take first place by a wide margin.
2. Alice Cain. Running as a moderate progressive, Cain has managed to win the hearts of many Annapolitan voters. She raised a lot more money than Axe, and has at least as strong of a grassroots campaign. Axe will come in third place, but will trail Cain by a respectable 5%.

District 30B (South County)

District 30B has only one delegate, and is located in rural, Republican, southern Anne Arundel County. It’s been represented by Republican Seth Howard since its creation four years ago, and with the political climate favoring Democrats, a few brave souls have decided to try their luck: Susan Cochran, Mike Shay, and Carmen Skarlupka. The winner:

• Mike Shay. This isn’t that bold of a prediction; Shay will win easily. Many folks see him as the only person who as consistently fought for south county; not just in the race, but in general. Shay is also the only candidate who could make Del. Howard sweat in November.

District 32 (Glen Burnie, Hanover, Linthicum, Severn)

Ted Sophocleus has passed away, and Pam Beidle is running for State Senate. That leaves only one incumbent in this three-member district, Mark Chang, and two open seats. This will be the most thrilling race because there are six candidates including Chang…..and seven if you include Sophocleus, whose name will still be on the ballots as they have already been printed. Some people have speculated what will happen if Sophocleus ends up in the top three, but that point is moot because I actually have him coming in last behind the other candidates: Patrick Armstrong, Sandy Bartlett, Chang, Jenese Jones, Derek Kent, and Mike Rogers. My predictions for the top three:

1. Mark Chang. He represents this area well as a moderate Democrat, the party he switched to four years ago. Before his election, he handled constituent service work for Ed DeGrange and Ted Sophocleus, so it’s no wonder that his own constituent service is excellent.
2. Sandy Bartlett. Anointed as a member of “Team 32” alongside Beidle, Chang, and Sophocleus, the DCC member from Maryland City is well-connected in west county and will benefit from being on the signs with the rest of the team.
3. Mike Rogers. He’s outraised all the other candidates besides Bartlett and Chang, and is the only one who seems to have a dedicated grassroots support team. Rogers seems to be everywhere and will be an excellent addition to Team 32. He’ll beat out the fourth place finisher, Patrick Armstrong, by more than 5%.

District 46 (Brooklyn, South Baltimore)

The three incumbents, Luke Clippinger, Robbyn Lewis, and Brooke Lierman, are all running for re-election, although it will technically be Lewis’ first election since she was appointed to her seat when Pete Hammen resigned in 2016. The question on everyone’s minds is whether Lewis has managed to establish herself with voters sufficiently to win an election. The rest of “Team 46” (Clippinger, Lierman, and State Senator Bill Ferguson) is doing all they can to help her out, and she’s personally very popular especially in the eastern part of the district. What makes this race interesting is the fact that two other candidates are also vying for seats here: healthcare and community advocate Dea Thomas, and Obama administration official Nate Loewentheil. The latter in particular has run a very strong campaign, and has raised an outrageous amount of money. Nate’s grassroots campaign has also been on point, as he’s paid visits to every community in the district, including the ones most candidates don’t want to go to such as Cherry Hill and Brooklyn Homes. My predictions are:

1. Brooke Lierman. She won the most votes last time as a newcomer, and she’ll win the most votes this time for a second term.
2. Luke Clippinger. The affable, progressive giant is an ideological asset to Maryland and a community asset to the district. He’ll trail Lierman, but only by 1%.
3. Nate Loewentheil. His personal story, his devoted campaign, and of course his gobs of cash will propel him to the third seat here, 5% ahead of Lewis.

County Government

District 1 (Brooklyn Park, Hanover, Linthicum, Severn)

Incumbent Pete Smith is finishing his first full term, and is running for re-election. He’s been an effective and responsive representative, and will likely cruise to re-election. He has one challenger, Sarah Lacey, an attorney and community leader from Jessup. She may be laying the groundwork for a 2022 run when Smith will be term-limited, but in 2018 Pete Smith has this one in the bag, with at least a 10 point spread.

District 2 (Glen Burnie, Severn)

This is an open seat in the heart of north county. The Democratic candidates are community leader Candy Fontz and former school board member Allison Pickard. From the start, this race looked interesting as both women have long histories of community involvement. But Fontz’s fundraising has been lagging behind, and Pickard’s focus on education seems to be resonating more with voters in this political climate. Both are very qualified candidates, but this is Allison Pickard‘s year.

District 6 (Annapolis)

The Annapolis primary is always interesting whenever it’s an open seat. This year, there are two candidates: blogger and attorney Scott MacMullan, and teacher Lisa Rodvien. MacMullan has done just about everything right when running for office: he has a strong ground game, powerful endorsements, and good fundraising. While Rodvien is slightly behind on the fundraising side of things, her focus on education is resonating strongly with voters this year, and for that reason I’m picking Lisa Rodvien to win a squeaker 2 point victory.