Election Watch: 9/26

This insane election has kept us on the edge of our seats all summer. The RNC had all the glamour of an awkward car crash, and provided little if any bump for Trump in the polls. The DNC, in contrast, was a fascinating display of American values, and we will be watching and re-watching the stirring speeches of Michelle Obama, Tim Kaine, and Khizr Khan for years to come.

Since then, the media appears to have become bored with the lack of new developments, and some outlets are inventing “developments” of their own, mostly to the detriment of Hillary Clinton. Everything will change tonight, for better or worse, because at 9pm we will see Clinton and Trump take the stage for the first time together for the inaugural debate of the season. If you get Bloomberg TV on cable or satellite, they are planning to run an on-screen fact checker, which will hopefully deter Trump from spewing his regular mix of lies and bigotry on national television.

After the debate, we should start to see Hillary run away with this election, as she should. So this is probably the worst the electoral map will get for her, barring some sort of unforeseen debate meltdown.

Ratings by state, and changes from July 1:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Lean R (-3.0)
Arkansas: Safe R (-19.5) *change from Likely R
California: Safe D (18.3)
Colorado: Lean D (4.9) *change from Tossup
Connecticut: Likely D (11.0) *change from Safe D
Delaware: Likely D (10.0) *change from Safe D
Florida: Lean D (2.8)
Georgia: Lean R (-2.6) *change from Tossup
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R (-21.0)
Illinois: Safe D
Indiana: Likely R (-8.3)
Iowa: Tossup (-1.4)
Kansas: Likely R (-14.5)
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R (-16.0)
Maine: Likely D (7.3)
-Maine’s 2nd District: Likely R (-7.5)
Maryland: Safe D (29.0)
Massachusetts: Safe D (21.5)
Michigan: Likely D (7.5)
Minnesota: Likely D (6.0) *change from Safe D
Mississippi: Likely R (-13.0) *change from Safe R
Missouri: Likely R (-5.8)
Montana: Safe R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Likely R (-8.0)
Nevada: Tossup (0.0)
New Hampshire: Likely D (7.3) *change from Tossup
New Jersey: Likely D (9.2)
New Mexico: Likely D (9.0) *change from Lean D
New York: Safe D (19.0)
North Carolina: Lean D (3.2) *change from Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Tossup (0.88)
Oklahoma: Safe R (-15.0)
Oregon: Likely D (9.0) *change from Lean D
Pennsylvania: Likely D (6.4) *change from Tossup
Rhode Island: Lean D (3.0) *change from Safe D
South Carolina: Lean R (-2.0) *change from Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Likely R (-7.8) *change from Safe R
Utah: Safe R (-17.1)
Vermont: Safe D (21.5)
Virginia: Likely D (9.9) *change from Lean D
Washington: Safe D (19.0)
West Virginia: Safe R (-22.5)
Wisconsin: Likely D (7.5)
Wyoming: Safe R
District of Columbia: Safe D

Check back next Tuesday for the post-debate polling update!