Election Watch: 6/1

If you had asked us four years ago who the Republican nominee would be in 2016, we wouldn’t have dreamed of Donald Trump. Yet, he’s the one Republican voters overwhelmingly chose to lead them. The Democratic race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders is still underway, and the winner of the California primary on June 4 will likely face Trump in November.

Although we like to focus on moving Maryland forward, the presidential race is an undeniably huge factor in whether this country will move forward or back. That’s why we like to take a weighted average of statewide polls, and present you with a map that projects what the electoral map would look like if the elections were held today.

In case you forgot, the numbers below (ex. 8.5) are the averages of all polls collected for each race. They represent how many points in each state the Democratic candidate is predicted to win by, on average. Negative numbers indicate how many points, on average, the Democrat is trailing the Republican in the race.

Initial ratings:

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Lean R (-2.0)
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D (12.0)
Colorado: Tossup
Connecticut: Safe D
Delaware: Safe D
Florida: Lean D (2.0)
Georgia: Tossup (-1.0)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Safe D
Indiana: Likely R (7.0)
Iowa: Tossup
Kansas: Likely R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R (-16.0)
Maine: Likely D
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Michigan: Likely D
Minnesota: Safe D
Mississippi: Safe R
Missouri: Likely R
Montana: Safe R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nebraska’s 2nd District: Likely R (-8.0)
Nevada: Tossup
New Hampshire: Tossup (1.0)
New Jersey: Likely D (7.8)
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe D (26.0)
North Carolina: Lean R (-4.0)
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Tossup (1.3)
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D (4.5)
Pennsylvania: Tossup (1.0)
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Virginia: Lean D (2.0)
Washington: Safe D
West Virginia: Safe R
Wisconsin: Safe D (12.0)
Wyoming: Safe R
District of Columbia: Safe D

Some recent national polls have Trump with a slight lead, but as Michael Cohen of the Boston Globe points out, Trump has gotten a surge in support since he effectively clinched the GOP nomination on May 3. Hillary (and still possibly Bernie) will receive a similar boost to their numbers after the Democratic Convention in late July.